Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

In June 2018, Vivid Economics released “Accelerating the Transformation of Electric Vehicles-Part Two: Power System Impact”. This series of reports is a research project commissioned by the institution by WWF.

In June 2018, Vivid Economics released “Accelerating the Transformation of Electric Vehicles-Part Two: Power System Impact”. This series of reports is a research project commissioned by the institution by WWF.

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In 2017, the Air Quality Plan issued by the British government proposed that by 2040, the sale of all new traditional gasoline, diesel cars and vans should be stopped, and basically all cars and vans on the road should be zero by 2050. Emissions (UK Ministry of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2017). WWF commissioned Vivid Economics to study the key impacts of the gradual withdrawal of traditional cars and vans in 2040 and 2030.

Use smart charging to reduce the impact of electric vehicles on the power system

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

Use V2G to reduce peak power demand and reduce costs

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

The first part of this report mainly covers the economic and environmental impact of the development of electric vehicles, such as working in the British auto industry, prices, etc., as well as air pollution and carbon emissions.

This report is the second part, mainly covering the impact of the development of electric vehicles on the power system, as well as thinking about the potential value of re-enabling electric vehicles to stationary energy storage.

The installed capacity structure in 2017 and 2030 in the simulated scenario

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

The power generation structure in 2017 and 2030 in the simulated scenario

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

In the first part, we researched two gradual exit scenarios:

―2040 scenario: This scenario represents the cessation of all new traditional gasoline, diesel cars and van sales in 2040. In this scenario, there will be 13 million electric vehicles in the UK by 2030 (currently only 137,000 electric vehicles).

―2030 scenario: This scenario represents the cessation of all new traditional gasoline, diesel cars and van sales in 2030. In this scenario, by 2030, there will be an increase of 20 million electric vehicles in the UK.

In order to estimate the value of smart charging and V2G (vehicle to grid) technologies in the integration of electric vehicles into the power system, the power system was modeled. In cooperation with Imperial College London, we estimated the composition and cost of the power system in the 2030 and 2040 scenarios. The variables in different cases represent different charging characteristics.

―In the case of standard charging, electric vehicles are charged at peak hours (the power demand is highest).

―In the case of smart charging, electric vehicles are charged during valley hours (overnight or during the day).

―In the case of V2G, electric vehicles provide electricity for the peak hours of the grid.

Re-enabling electric vehicle batteries with stationary energy storage can save the cost of using new batteries, so the value of re-enabling electric vehicle batteries with stationary energy storage is estimated. Estimated the number of batteries that may be re-assigned to stationary energy storage in each scenario, and compared the cost of re-adjusting batteries with the cost of using new batteries.

Key finding

―The 2030 scenario using smart charging is cheaper than the 2040 scenario using standard charging, so it is cheaper for consumers. In terms of the cost of integrating electric vehicles into the power system, the charging characteristics are more important than the number of electric vehicles. In other words, the degree of intelligence in the transformation of electric vehicles will become a key factor in determining how to achieve low-cost and high-efficiency transformation, rather than the speed of transformation.

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

The 2030 scenario using smart charging is cheaper than the 2040 scenario using standard charging

―Smart charging and V2G technologies are feasible in the UK, and a series of trials are now underway.

―In the 2030 scenario and the 2040 scenario, smart charging may reduce the cost of electric vehicle charging by 42%.

―In the 2040 scenario, the combination of smart charging and V2G can reduce the charging cost by 49%, and in the 2030 scenario, it can reduce the charging cost by 46%.

―In the case of standard charging, driving an electric car may increase the owner’s electricity bill by £175 per year, while smart charging and/or V2G may reduce related electricity bills by 42 to 49%. At present, the average fuel expenditure for driving a new gasoline/diesel car or van is 800 pounds per year.

The cost of running an electric car in terms of average electricity bills (2030)

Accelerating the transformation of electric vehicles-Part II Power System Impact

―In order to make the repurposed electric vehicle battery have important value, innovation is needed to achieve the lowest life span and the largest repurpose cost. With such innovation, in the 2040 scenario, the total potential value of these batteries may reach 250 million pounds in 2040 and 1 billion pounds in 2050. In the 2030 scenario, the total potential value may increase to approximately 400 million pounds in 2040 and 1.3 billion pounds in 2050.

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